Monitoring and Early Warning of Violent Conflict in South Sudan Report #1

Peace Tech Lab

Created 06/21/2019

Analysis, Monitoring


Early warning of violent conflict

Six years of conflict in South Sudan have resulted in over 380,000 deaths, 2.5 million refugees, and nearly 2 million internally displaced people. And despite the signing of a peace agreement in August of last year, episodes of violence continue to plague the country. Early warning of violent conflict is key to organizations.

PeaceTech Lab believes the ability to predict violent conflict provides critical information for concerned individuals and organizations working to prevent violent conflict before it spreads. These reports mark our foray into statistical modeling of offline violence based on online, open-sourced data.

Click here to read the the full report. 

*** This report is the first of six biweekly reports that are part of an initiative by PeaceTech Lab to identify, monitor, analyze and report on hate speech trends and their relationship to violence incidents and events on the ground in South Sudan. In each of the six reports we will provide insights into recent events identified through our own monitoring and the publicly available ACLED data sets, and will compare our predictions from the previous report with the events that actually took place during the prediction period.

We will also be actively maintaining an online portal page which is updated regularly and provides visualizations of the hate speech and violent incidents data in real time. These reports will focus on providing Warning of violent conflict at the state-level in South Sudan, along with analysis of current events on the ground. Our hope is that this information will be used by relevant stakeholders for conflict prevention and mitigation purposes.

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