Theories of Change and Indicator Development in Conflict Management and Mitigation

Theories of change is a simple, powerful concept which can improve design, monitoring and
evaluation of programs in conflict-afflicted environments. In general, a theory of change states
what expected (changed) result will follow from a particular set of actions. A simple example
would be, if I add more fuel to the fire, then it will burn hotter. The concept is analogous to a
development hypothesis.

This report presents background information and key content related to the USAID-sponsored
workshop on Theories of Change Indicator Development that was held December 14-15, 2009, at
George Mason University‘s Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution (ICAR) in
collaboration with the Academy for Educational Development (AED). The report opens with a
brief review of theories of change and then of the conflict field‘s engagement with theories of
change thus far, including USAID/DCHA/CMM‘s initiative in this area. Next, the theory of
change and conflict assessment concepts are differentiated, and the role that theories of change
can play for improved conflict program design, monitoring, and evaluation are discussed. The
report then summarizes the December 2009 workshop‘s sessions and key indicator and theory of
change refinement outputs. The report concludes by presenting next research agenda steps to
strengthen the theories of change underpinning conflict management and mitigation and the use
of indicators for focusing evaluation of these programs.